Wired for Change: What’s Next for EVs

By   |     |  Clean Power Guide

When I bought my first EV in 2019 there were about four car brands selling EVs. Now there are at least 45 fully electric models for sale in the US, from every car brand. From subcompacts, to pickup trucks, to three-row SUVs, there is an EV for sale today to fit every family and budget. I was one of the first in my town with an EV, but now there are over 250,000 EVs on the roads of New York and over 45,000 right here in the Hudson Valley.

Since the first Nissan Leaf rolled off the assembly line in 2010, EVs have been changing rapidly. Once exclusively expensive “luxury” vehicles, many EVs today are priced below the average new car. In fact the best-selling car in the world in 2023 was the fully electric Tesla Model Y. There are now six new EV models priced under $40,000, before incentives. And you can find many used EVs for $15-$25,000, before incentives.

The incentives have changed too. Current incentives are no longer tax credits, but are deducted from the sale price by the car dealer. EVs that are assembled in the US, with batteries made mostly in the US, are eligible for $7,500 off the purchase price. New York offers an additional $2,000 off the purchase price. This means some EVs get instant rebates up to $9,500. Used EVs get a $4,000 instant rebate.

These powerful rebates have incentivized manufacturers to build their cars and batteries in the US. Dozens of auto and battery companies are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in new factories in the US, creating hundreds of thousands of new manufacturing jobs.

EV chargers are popping up everywhere. You will see fast chargers at all the rebuilt rest stops along the Thruway, and along other major highways. Most states have finished their plans to use the federal government funding from the Inflation Reduction Act to build EV charging, and we are now seeing new fast chargers along most major US highways.

And at long last, EVs are converging to use one common charging plug, instead of the two different plugs we’ve always had. The Tesla charging plug will be on all new US EVs starting in 2025 or 26, and all car brands will be able to use many Tesla supercharger stations in addition to combined charging system stations.

Battery tech is improving too. The lithium-ion battery is still king, but there are new types of that battery, called LFP (lithium iron phosphate), that offer cheaper prices, better cold weather performance, increased safety, and do not used nickel or cobalt. These batteries are in about 50 percent of the EVs made today. Huge new lithium deposits in the western US promise to continue lowering the cost of EV batteries.

For the last several years, we have heard that solid state batteries are just a few years away. But guess what—they are now just a few years away. “Solid state” means that the battery’s liquid electrolyte (what separates the anode and cathode) is replaced with a solid material. This leads to lower weight, higher energy density, faster charging speeds, and less risk of fire. A few car brands will feature these batteries in their 2025 models.

Battery recycling is also gearing up to get ready for EVs to start retiring. Several companies, one based in New York, have built recycling plants that can reclaim nearly 95 percent of a battery’s constituent chemicals. These are sold to battery manufacturers to make new batteries in a closed loop system.

EVs are still in the beginning of their development. We’ve had over 120 years to develop the internal combustion engine, and only about 12 years of EVs in production. Changes are coming fast and I’m excited!

Steve Wehr is a retired IBM senior engineer, an EV coach for New Yorkers for Clean Power, and a member of the Town of Hyde Park Climate Smart committee. Wehr spends all day nerding out on electric vehicles, charging, renewable energy, and battery technology, so you don’t have to.

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