A Reality Check for Hudson Valley Home Sellers

By   |     |  Hudson Valley Real Estate Market

Real estate markets in some parts of the US, particularly in Sunbelt states like Florida and Arizona, have been undergoing drastic downturns on a level not seen since the 2008 housing market crash. Factors specific to those places—natural disasters and the resulting prohibitive insurance costs, a reversal of the migration trends that happened during and immediately after Covid—are driving a decline that seems unlikely to change anytime soon, with prices still inflated while supply balloons. Nationally, a .01 percentage drop in mortgage rates in the last week of April didn’t seem to be convincing buyers to jump on in. Even with interest rates considerably down from last year, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index indicated just a three percent year-over-year increase in originations at that point.

That doesn’t translate to a major correction in the Northeast, or in the Hudson Valley and Catskills, where tight inventory and the steady flow of people who tire of city living are keeping prices high. Analyst Nick Gerli, CEO of the Reventure app, has noted on X that while Florida has the highest number of homes on the market in its history—177,000—the Northeast is at an all-time low, with just 79,000 homes for sale.

Still Hot in the Hudson Valley

Nevertheless, local realtors are saying that things continue to loosen just a bit, with inventory ticking slowly but steadily upward. Municipalities facing an overall affordability crisis in both real estate prices and rental costs are revising dated zoning codes and comprehensive plans and looking at permitting reforms that may help to ease things, but particularly in the face of overall economic uncertainty—tariffs impacting materials prices in as-yet-uncertain ways, volatility on Wall Street—it will be a while before the impact on supply is felt.

Across the region, sellers whose heads are full of hot-market dreams of wealth will find themselves disappointed if their prices don’t reflect current realities, says Dan Mahar of Mahar Real Estate, who specializes in Columbia and Greene Counties, the farthest reaches of the commuter belt. “Places over $600,000 that aren’t done are sitting on the market, specifically in rural locations,” he says. “Your buyers who ‘missed out’ during the Covid rush are looking at the things in the $300 to mid- $400s, but if those are finished and priced right, they’re gone when they hit.”

Mahar says that inventory has been growing in his region, and prices should continue to stabilize. “A lot of buyers say ‘there’s nothing out there,’ but that’s no longer true. It may not be what they are looking for, but inventory rose from 2023 by 123 percent and to 2024 another 144 percent, with a total of 449 units on market right now in Columbia County and a median range of $465,000 to $570,000.”

Cooling Not Crashing

In Ulster County, Greg Berardi of Berardi Real Estate says properties in “hot” locations like Uptown Kingston are still seeing multiple high-dollar offers, but he shares Mahar’s perception that some sellers need to adjust to a more balanced reality. “I’m seeing properties priced in the $700,000 to $800,000 range that I believe are just too high,” he says. “The prices reflect the last couple of years of an escalating market, and that’s eased up. So those places will just sit.”

For the first time in recorded history, the median sale price in every county in the Hudson Valley is above $300,000. Average days-on-market stats, compiled by Coldwell Banker Village Green Realty, rose a bit year-over-year in the first quarter in some locales, going from 68 to 75 in Dutchess County, 57 to 76 in Greene and 70 to 87 in Ulster, but declined from 80 to 74 in Columbia and stayed level in Sullivan County, as did sales.

Some of that longer time on the market may be reflective of the aforementioned starry-eyed sellers, but Megan Rios, top-producing agent at Berardi, says higher-priced homes are sitting a bit longer even when the price is right. “It all depends on the location, the amenities, and the upgrades,” she says. “Sellers who put the energy and money into a good presentation, even if it’s just a cleanup and a fresh coat of paint, are being rewarded by buyers who are really looking for move-in-ready places. And anything under $400,000 that’s remotely decent is gone in a day. There’s just no inventory at that price point, zero.”

The Price Has to Be Right

On the west shore of the Hudson, Berardi and Rios agree, bargain hunters should check out rural areas around places that have been slower to gentrify, such as Ellenville and Catskill. (Catskill has developed its own lively Main Street scene, raising prices within the village, but that may be less true of the countryside to the north and west.)

Overall, we’re still talking about a seller’s market—but the slight and gradual cooling taking place means that those sellers need to be at least a bit more realistic.

Sandi Park, a realtor with Coldwell Banker and founder of her own firm, Hudson Valley Nest, writes in her real estate newsletter The Brick that nine Dutchess County communities, including Beacon, Poughkeepsie, Red Hook, and Wappinger, saw overall year-over-year sales increases as of March 31, while other places saw slight declines.

Bottom line, it will take major increases in inventory—which many areas are striving to create, given the ongoing affordability crisis—before any major shift in favor of buyers comes about. As always, working with a local expert who keeps their ear to the ground and knows your wants is your best bet; many desirable properties in popular communities sell before they even hit the market when the listing agent knows exactly what a buyer’s after. 

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